There is going to be quite a difference between what Beijing would say and of what the dragon would do as it is known for changing colors and adapting to the changing landscape. There is a lot at stake for China if it goes ahead with any coercive action against Taiwan; it just can’t because there isn’t only the aspect of security linked to it, but what would define the situation between China, the US, and Taiwan, is going to be the economics of it. The numbers which are available out there make it clear: The top exports of Taiwan are Integrated Circuits ($138B), Office Machine Parts ($16.1B), Computers ($10.9B), Blank Audio Media ($9.2B), and Broadcasting Equipment ($8B); the country exports it to mostly China with a trade of $104B, United States, $54.8B, Hong Kong, $50B, Singapore, $24.9B, and Japan ($24.3B).
The numbers do not lie, no matter what Beijing says, it has to take care of the economics of it because if the conflict arises, the same is going to have far-reaching implications not only for Taiwan but also so China, no matter how big its economy is; and then the same is then going to have implications on various sectors across the world—potent of denting the global markets. Both the US as well as China is aware of that situation and if we have witnessed restraint from China after the visit of Pelosi, the reasons for the same are quite obvious—it just cannot afford a military offensive not even a mild intensity conflict in Taiwan because of the US.
To understand the impacts of conflict, we do not have to go back to world war-II. We have an example of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. No matter how much Russia boasted about its power to the world, due to economic sanctions imposed by the west under the leadership of the US, and its failure in the Ukraine offensive, the country has come to a grinding halt. It has been left crippled with Putin now relaxing in a bungalow sending across a message within the lines that he has surrendered. Russia has rolled back to this point because it has failed in its war on Ukraine and the same fate awaits China if it goes ahead with what it has been warning of. Now that the US has made its entry, times ahead would showcase how the twin powers would fight it out on the economic turf rather than going for missiles and bullets.